Is the US Heading Into a Recession - Top Indicators and Challenges

As inflation continues to increase, so does the probability of a US recession. Some of the key contributing factors are production halts in China due to the continuous lockdowns, market volatility, and rising inflation on the account of the ongoing Russia and Ukraine war which are impacting the manufacturing and business forecasts. Additionally, we are seeing shortages in global markets for essential commodities and the required workforce, resulting in a lack of products. With The Federal Government raising interest rates, many businesses are finding it difficult to stay afloat, with a 0.75%-point rise being the highest rise in the last 28 years. Leading retailers have also reported a drop in sales and profits due to increased costs and excess in inventory levels. Total industrial production dropped by 0.2% in June, with a considerable decline in manufacturing activity. On the other hand, China’s slowdown in growth could also affect trade, US debt, and the value of the US dollar. With these current economic conditions, an impending recession may transpire in 2023.